The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
aired [03.28.2025]
Hosts: Jason Calacanis
Chamath Palihapitiya
David Friedberg
Guest: Gavin Baker
Key Insights
NVIDIA’s Blackwell Shift: The transition from Hopper to Blackwell GPUs is a massive but manageable feat, with rising accounts receivable tied to its complexity—not a red flag unless it persists past July.
CoreWeave’s IPO Potential: Despite skepticism, CoreWeave’s knack for running large GPU clusters could make it a standout in cloud computing, echoing AWS’s underestimated rise.
AI Agents’ Game-Changer: AI agents could empower small teams to conquer complex projects, though compute shortages might cap their reach.
Tariffs as Economic Leverage: The Trump administration’s tariff push aims to reshore manufacturing and shield IP, but it’s a high-stakes balancing act requiring deregulation to work.
Signal Gate Fallout: A journalist’s accidental peek into a government chat exposes sloppy security, sparking debate over transparency versus efficiency in official communications.
Deportation Dilemma: Sending alleged gang members to El Salvador’s brutal CECOT prison cuts crime but risks human rights, testing America’s due process values.
1.NVIDIA’s Blackwell Leap: A Tricky but Temporary Hiccup
NVIDIA’s shift from Hopper to Blackwell GPUs is a beast of a transition, and Gavin Baker, a veteran investor, breaks it down. The jump in accounts receivable—from $1.5 billion to $5.5 billion year-over-year—stems from the upgrade’s complexity: Blackwell racks weigh 3,000 pounds, guzzle 120 kilowatts, and need liquid cooling, unlike Hopper’s air-cooled 60 kilowatts. Baker sees this as par for the course, not panic-worthy—unless it drags past July.
Strategic moves: NVIDIA’s investments in firms like CoreWeave diversify its buyer pool, cutting reliance on big cloud players like Amazon and Microsoft.
Quote: “If that trend [in accounts receivable] continues past the July quarter, then I would say, hey, that’s reason for concern. But this is a very understandable time for that to happen from my perspective.” — Gavin Baker.
2.CoreWeave’s IPO: Betting Big on GPU Mastery
CoreWeave’s IPO, raising $1.5 billion at a $23 billion valuation, stirs debate. Critics flag its $8 billion debt and Microsoft-heavy revenue (60%), but Baker pushes back. He argues that running massive GPU clusters isn’t a commodity gig—it’s a rare skill, akin to AWS’s early days when doubters scoffed. With 2 billion in revenue last year, CoreWeave’s growth hints at a new cloud contender.
Bull case: Expertise in GPU clusters could defy the naysayers, much like retail giants thrive on execution, not just scale.
Quote: “It may not be the commodity that everyone thinks it is, and it may turn out that it’s much harder to do than people think.” — Gavin Baker.
“It may not be the commodity that everyone thinks it is, and it may turn out that it’s much harder to do than people think.”
3. AI Agents: Small Teams, Big Dreams
AI agents are poised to flip the script on business ops. Baker touts the Model Context Protocol (MCP) as a game-changer, letting AI integrate seamlessly with services like Stripe. Friedberg goes bigger: agents could let tiny teams tackle wild projects—like underwater plant breeding—by automating the heavy lifting. Compute scarcity, though, might keep this revolution on a leash.
Impact: Small groups could rival huge crews, slashing costs and sparking innovation.
Quote: “I think what we’re missing is the ability to unlock really complex tasks that are not really manageable today.” — David Friedberg
4. Tariffs: Reshoring or Risking It All?
The Trump administration’s tariff play aims to bring manufacturing home and guard intellectual property. Palihapitiya calls it a leveling tool—match China’s 10% with our 10%—but warns of execution pitfalls like inflation or trade wars. Baker stresses deregulation as the secret sauce to make it stick, while Friedberg ties it to tax cuts for balance. It’s a bold experiment with no room for error.
Stakes: Success could revive U.S. jobs; failure could tank the economy.
Quote: “Every time they say the word tariff, they need to say the word deregulation two or three times.” — Gavin Baker
“Every time they say the word tariff, they need to say the word deregulation two or three times.”
5. Signal Gate: A Security Slip Sparks a Showdown
A journalist stumbling into a high-stakes Signal chat—featuring war plans against Yemen’s Houthis—lays bare government tech blunders. Palihapitiya calls it a hasty fix for a shipping crisis, but Friedberg digs into the legal mess: the Federal Records Act demands transparency, yet constant FOIA scrutiny could stifle real talk. Calacanis slams the hypocrisy—Republicans raged at Hillary’s emails, now they’re mum.
Debate: Secure comms versus public accountability—where’s the line?
Quote: “I think it is counterproductive to have every piece of communication FOIA-ble and kept in the public record.” — David Friedberg.
6. Deportation Drama: Safety vs. Rights at CECOT
Using the 1798 Alien Enemies Act, the administration deported 238 alleged gang members to El Salvador’s CECOT prison—a hellhole that slashed the country’s homicide rate from 103 to 1.9 per 100,000. All had U.S. criminal records, but missteps surfaced: a soccer player, a shoe salesman, and a gay stylist, nabbed over tattoos, claim innocence. Friedberg and Calacanis decry the due process dodge; Palihapitiya sees a deterrent signal.
Tension: Crime drops, but at what cost to American values?
Quote: “I do not agree with sending people to prison or a detention center without due process.” — David Friedberg.