TWIST
AI Revolution Gains,
Non-Consensus Startups
& Prosperous AI | E2104

aired [03.28.2025]


Host:

Jason Calacanis

Co-hosts/Guests:

Alex Wilhelm

Lon Harris

Key Insights

  • The NeoCloud market, driven by AI and GPU demand, is growing, as shown by CoreWeave’s $20 billion IPO.

  • AI startups like Cursor and Complexity are scaling fast by boosting productivity with affordable pricing.

  • Targeting niche markets, such as procurement in construction, helps startups tailor solutions and secure product-market fit.

  • Resilience in fundraising, exemplified by Melanie Perkins’ three-year journey at Canva, is key to overcoming rejection.

  • Successful venture capital blends disciplined execution with strategic market selection, per Union Square Ventures’ approach.
1. NeoCloud Rising: CoreWeave’s IPO Signals AI-Driven Growth

  • CoreWeave, a GPU-focused NeoCloud provider for AI workloads, debuted publicly at over $20 billion, raising $1.7 billion despite a shaky start at $39.50 per share versus a $47-$55 range.

  • The IPO reflects surging demand for specialized cloud services beyond traditional CPU-based giants like AWS, though concerns linger about overcapacity and commoditization risks.

  • Jason Calacanis sees potential but cautions that NeoClouds must differentiate to avoid becoming mere utilities, a key question for investors eyeing long-term bets.

  • Quote: "CoreWeave, a NeoCloud provider focused on GPU-based cloud computing for AI jobs, went public at a valuation over $20 billion, highlighting the growing demand for specialized cloud services." — Jason Calacanis.
2. AI’s Money Machine: Cursor and Complexity Cash In

  • Cursor, an AI coding tool, hit $200 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR), doubling from $100 million, while Complexity reached $100 million in 20 months, growing 6.3x in a year—both sans trials.

  • Low pricing—Cursor’s pro plan at $20/month—delivers outsized productivity gains (10-40% for developers), proving the “take 10% of value” model can fuel explosive growth.

  • Jason stresses tripling revenue goals to unlock funding, as underpricing builds loyalty and curbs churn, a lesson from Netflix and Spotify’s subscription playbooks.

  • Quote: "AI startups like Cursor and Complexity are achieving rapid revenue growth by making developers significantly more productive, demonstrating the value of AI tools in software development." — Jason Calacanis.
“AI startups like Cursor and Complexity are achieving rapid revenue growth by making developers significantly more productive, demonstrating the value of AI tools in software development.”
3. Niche is Nice: Prosperous AI Masters Procurement

  • Mariano of Prosperous AI, a Launch Accelerator alum, targets procurement pros at construction firms spending $50 million+ on materials, saving millions by optimizing supply chain costs.

  • The tool integrates fragmented ERP data (e.g., NetSuite, SAP) and market insights, aiding non-technical buyers in negotiations—a light lift for aerospace expansion despite compliance hurdles.

  • Jason advises sticking to construction “layups” for momentum before tackling aerospace, citing Airbnb’s disciplined focus on its core before branching out years later.

  • Quote:"Focusing on a specific market, like procurement in construction, allows startups to deeply understand customer needs and build tailored solutions, increasing the chances of success." — Jason Calacanis
“Focusing on a specific market, like procurement in construction, allows startups to deeply understand customer needs and build tailored solutions, increasing the chances of success.”
4. Rejection to Riches: Canva’s Fundraising Grit

  • Melanie Perkins of Canva endured three years of rejections—over valuation, location (Australia), and her non-designer design tool—before raising a seed round, now valued at $40 billion.

  • She tracked feedback, distinguishing valid critiques from shortsighted ones, like dismissing new markets as unviable, a classic VC miss on power-law outliers like Airbnb and Google.

  • Jason urges founders to log rejections in a CRM, seek specific critiques, and persevere, turning “no” into fuel for later triumphs.

  • Quote: "Melanie Perkins of Canva faced numerous rejections but persevered for three years to secure funding, illustrating the importance of resilience and creating products for new markets." — Jason Calacanis.
5. VC Playbook: Union Square’s Winning Formula

  • Fred Wilson and Brad Burnham of Union Square Ventures (USV) blend execution (doing venture right) with vision (picking the right ventures), a duo that landed Twitter over Sequoia.

  • Wilson focuses on process—supporting founders long-term—while Burnham hones market bets, like early internet plays, proving complementary skills can outshine solo brilliance.

  • Jason ties this to founder-VC fit: investors who live the product (e.g., Fred’s blogging aligning with Twitter) amplify success, a lesson for both sides of the table.

  • Quote: "I think we do venture right and we also do the right venture." — Fred Wilson.
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